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Will EPA publish a final interim SGAR decision before July 2027? Yes

Yes52%
No49%

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Spread9%
ResolvesJul 8, 2027in 9 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If EPA publishes a Federal Register notice announcing a final interim decision for any of the four listed second-generation anticoagulant rodenticides before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. SGAR means second-generation anticoagulant rodenticide. An interim decision means an issued EPA interim registration-review decision following the proposed interim decision. A Federal Register notice announcing its availability is the qualifying publication; the full decision text need not be reproduced there. Publication for any one of brodifacoum, bromadiolone, difenacoum, or difethialone qualifies. A proposal, agency promise, docket upload without that Federal Register notice, or later final registration-review decision does not qualify. A ban or other policy outcome is not required.

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As of Sep 30, 10:27 AM UTC