Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.08% by Sep 30, 2026? 5.07% or below
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the daily published par yield for the 30Y U.S. Treasury is below 5.08% on any business day between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Sep 9, 2026 and Sep 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30Y tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first published value for each business day governs unless the Exchange determines a material error prior to that strike's expiration. Expiration If the threshold is met, the market may expire early in accordance with Rule 7.2. Otherwise, the market will expire by 7:00 PM ET on the first business day after the final daily value of the period is published, or one week after the period ends, whichever comes first.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Sep 29, 08:28 PM UTC