Turkey rate decision in October: Will the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye cut more than 250bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting?

If the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye takes the action of cut more than 250bps at October Monetary Policy Committee Meeting, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the official policy rate decision announced by the central bank. For central banks with multiple policy rates, only changes to the primary policy rate count. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "Maintain current rate" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to scheduled meetings. The size of a rate change is calculated by comparing the policy rate announced at the meeting with the policy rate in effect immediately before the decision. One hundred basis points equals one percentage point. For example, if the previous rate is 37.00%, a new rate of 34.50% represents a 250-basis-point cut, while a new rate of 34.00% represents a 300-basis-point cut.