Will Samiuela Vea win the Tongatapu 2 by-election?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alvin Lafu Sika win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 82% No | Open |
| Will Sione Harvard Tupouniua win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 86% No | Open |
| Will Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Will Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 84% No | Open |
| Will 'Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 89% No | Open |
| Will 'Olioni Manoa win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 92% No | Open |
| Will Lei Paasi win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 87% No | Open |
| Will Mounu Uaisele win the Tongatapu 2 by-election? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:28 PM UTC