California's 4th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Eric Jones in CA-04 be at least 15 percentage points? Eric Jones, 15+ pts

If Eric Jones wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 4th District by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Eric Jones minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Eric Jones if Eric Jones wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Eric Jones loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Eric Jones runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Eric Jones will be summed. If Eric Jones wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Eric Jones loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Eric Jones ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Eric Jones is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).