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California's 7th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Mai Vang in CA-07 be at least 20 percentage points? Mai Vang, 20+ pts

No97%
Mai Vang, 20+ pts3%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread5%
ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 9Sep 15Sep 20Sep 25Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Mai Vang wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 7th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Mai Vang minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Mai Vang if Mai Vang wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Mai Vang loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Mai Vang runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Mai Vang will be summed. If Mai Vang wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Mai Vang loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Mai Vang ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Mai Vang is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

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As of Oct 1, 03:47 AM UTC