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California's 14th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Aisha Wahab in CA-14 be at least 30 percentage points? Aisha Wahab, 30+ pts

No97%
Aisha Wahab, 30+ pts3%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 9Sep 15Sep 21Sep 26Oct 2Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Aisha Wahab wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 14th District by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Aisha Wahab minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Aisha Wahab if Aisha Wahab wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Aisha Wahab loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Aisha Wahab runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Aisha Wahab will be summed. If Aisha Wahab wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Aisha Wahab loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Aisha Wahab ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Aisha Wahab is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

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As of Oct 2, 03:34 PM UTC