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California's 29th District margin of victory: Will the margin of victory for Luz Rivas in CA-29 be at least 20 percentage points? Luz Rivas, 20+ pts

No67%
Luz Rivas, 20+ pts33%

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24h volume$0
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Spread9%
ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 9Sep 15Sep 20Sep 26Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Luz Rivas wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in California's 29th District by 20 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Luz Rivas minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Luz Rivas if Luz Rivas wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Luz Rivas loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If Luz Rivas runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural Luz Rivas will be summed. If Luz Rivas wins the election, the margin will be positive. If Luz Rivas loses the election, the margin will be negative. If Luz Rivas ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where Luz Rivas is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).

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As of Oct 1, 09:10 PM UTC