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Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

No98%
Yoav Gallant2%

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24h volume$0
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Spread8%
ResolvesNov 4, 2030in 4 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. This market concerns the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, including a government formed after repeat elections. A new government is formed when the Knesset expresses confidence in it. A retained incumbent counts if appointed in that new government; continuation in the outgoing government does not. Minister of Defense means the holder of the Defense portfolio, including a Prime Minister who also formally holds it. An acting substitute, deputy minister, additional minister within the Defense Ministry, or Minister of National Security does not count. If the portfolio is initially vacant, the first person subsequently appointed to it in that government counts. Nominations, coalition agreements, intended appointments, and hypothetical scenarios do not qualify as taking office. Later replacements do not change the first officeholder.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi82% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi78% Naftali BennettOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi77% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benny Gantz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Ofer Winter is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?: Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Gadi Eisenkot is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?Kalshi98% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:52 PM UTC