KalshiOpen

Will USPS perform mandatory ballot-mail verification? Yes

No95%
Yes5%

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24h volume$300
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesNov 3, 2026next month

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If USPS mandatory pre-acceptance verification under DMM 705.24.5 of at least one outbound federal ballot mailing for the November 3 election is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency that A) explicitly states a qualifying USPS pre-acceptance verification occurred, B) is based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) is presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. A qualifying verification is a USPS review before acceptance under DMM 705.24.5 of an Outbound Federal Ballot Mail piece for the November 3, 2026 federal election, whether the review results in acceptance or rejection. Portal setup, data upload, enrollment, envelope-design review, voluntary familiarization, ordinary acceptance without that verification, Return Federal Ballot Mail, UOCAVA mail, primary ballots, state-only ballot mail, registration material, and polling notices do NOT qualify.

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As of Sep 29, 07:21 PM UTC