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Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law? Yes

No59%
Yes41%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a federal film or television production tax credit has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. A qualifying federal law must expressly create a tax credit against federal tax liability for qualified film or television production. A deduction, expensing or depreciation provision, tariff, grant, appropriation, state or local incentive, proposal, or administrative action without qualifying federal law does NOT qualify. The legislation must be signed by the President or become law through veto override. An expired presidential pocket veto does NOT qualify. The credit need not take effect before the deadline if the law becomes law within the specified period.

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As of Sep 29, 08:28 PM UTC