What will be the top AI model this month? claude-fable-5.1-max
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If claude-fable-5.1-max is the top-ranked AI model on Sep 30, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-opus-4-7 | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-opus-5-max | Kalshi | 93% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-opus-5-high | Kalshi | 98% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-opus-4-6-thinking | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
| What will be the top AI model this month? claude-fable-5 | Kalshi | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 10:10 PM UTC