Will the US create a national AI regulator?: Will the US commit to a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028?

If the United States agrees to or announces the establishment of a national AI regulator before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. For this market, a qualifying establishment must be adopted through a law, executive order, regulation, or other binding official act, or unconditionally announced by the President, an authorized Cabinet official, or another authorized U.S. government body. A new body or formally designated existing body qualifies only if a binding official action grants it primary nationwide, cross-sector AI rulemaking, licensing, supervisory, or enforcement authority comparable in substance to a national regulator, or if an unconditional official announcement commits to granting it such authority, including when that authority will take effect later. The body's name or form does not control: a council, office, standards body, or SRO qualifies if one identifiable body receives those powers. A body that only advises, coordinates, studies, tests, sets voluntary standards, conducts one-off reviews, or has only sector-specific authority does not qualify. Distributed sector-by-sector authority does not qualify.