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Will Trump's revised birthright order take effect?: Will Trump's Executive Order 14418 take full effect before 2027?

No99%
Before 20271%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread3%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the full nationwide taking effect of Trump's Executive Order 14418 for all people it covers before January 1, 2027 is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. This must be confirmed, verified, or established as factual by at least one Source Agency. News confirmation is defined as a published article, broadcast segment, or official news report by a Source Agency, that A) explicitly states the full nationwide taking effect of Trump's Executive Order 14418 for all people it covers before January 1, 2027 occurred, is true, or has been verified, B) based on journalistic investigation, sources, or evidence, and C) presented as factual reporting rather than speculation, rumor, or unverified allegation. Full nationwide effect means federal agencies may legally implement EO 14418 throughout the United States for every covered category. Signing, publication, guidance, or partial applicability does not qualify. Any continuing federal block for a covered person, category, territory, or jurisdiction prevents Yes. A later block does not undo an earlier qualifying period.

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As of Sep 30, 07:42 AM UTC