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Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?: Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution before Oct 1, 2026?

No99%
Before Oct 1, 20261%

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24h volume$4.3K
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ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Anthropic announces a complete solution, developed by Anthropic or researchers collaborating directly with Anthropic on that solution, to one of the six Millennium Prize Problems unsolved as of September 5, 2026 before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying announcement must expressly state that Anthropic developed or co-developed the solution, or expressly identify outside researchers as having collaborated with Anthropic on developing that solution. The qualifying problems are the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, Hodge Conjecture, Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem, P versus NP, Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem. Work by an independent Claude user does NOT count, even if Anthropic publicizes it. Providing model access or research credits alone is not direct collaboration on the solution. Partial results, numerical evidence, or formalization of a previously known solution do NOT count as a complete solution. Clay acceptance, peer review, and a prize award are not required.

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As of Sep 30, 12:16 AM UTC