Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by September 30?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory beyond the Litani River, regardless of if some specified territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by October 31? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by March 31? | Polymarket | 80% No | Open |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | Polymarket | 92% No | Open |
Venue activity
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29 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- Prickly-Passport · 25 days ago
BREAKING | Israel's public broadcaster KAN, citing security sources: The IDF will withdraw and reposition closer to the Israeli border, at a depth of 3 to 4 km.
- Prickly-Passport · 25 days ago
- Prickly-Passport · 25 days ago
- Rare-Wait · 28 days ago
赞助的钱怎么退回来
- NOIZYUV · 2 months ago
Exclusive: Ahead of the next round of talks with Lebanon, Israel is drawing a red line and making it clear - we will not withdraw from additional territory in the security zone.
- NOIZYUV · 3 months ago
According to the new agreement, Israel remains in Beaufort, which is beyond the Litani River
- oopslostmoney · 3 months ago
Something significant?
- oopslostmoney · 3 months ago
LBCI @LBCILebanon @BassamAbouZeid has learned that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun expressed support during the call with U.S. and Qatari officials for the establishment of a special coordination cell tasked with permanently consolidating the ceasefire and securing Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon.
- fghfgdfrgfr · 4 months ago
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- FGHNFHJNFGHG · 4 months ago
Go go go!
- ERDSFGSDF · 4 months ago
You can do it
- 46REYT5G5 · 4 months ago
Keep moving
- 46REYT5G5 · 4 months ago
Fighting!
- 43T5WTREWT · 4 months ago
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- ersfgtsfgsdfrg · 4 months ago
Liquidity is always sufficient
- FVHGBDSFGFDG · 4 months ago
Trustworthy and reliable site.
- fghdfgdf · 4 months ago
nice
- DFVGDXFGSD · 4 months ago
Beyond expectation
- dfgdsfsdf · 4 months ago
Solid quality.
- ERTWERTEWF · 4 months ago
Superb.
As of Sep 30, 01:05 PM UTC