KalshiOpen

Will Trump expand the H-1B program?: Will Trump expand high-skill immigration? Before 2029

No82%
Before 202918%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread3%
ResolvesJan 20, 2029in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 12Aug 24Sep 6Sep 18Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the number of allowable H-1B visas as of Issuance (as of certification, the cap is 65,000 visas and an additional 20,000 for advanced degrees) has been increased after Issuance and before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Increasing the current cap (or eliminating it entirely) or exemption for advanced degrees, or creating new exemptions, would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. The Payout Criterion also encompasses creating a third kind of H-1B visa other than the normal visa and the exemption for advanced degrees.

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As of Oct 1, 03:24 AM UTC