KalshiOpen

Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?

Before 205068%

No32%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:11 PM UTC

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24h volume$8.4

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread5%

ResolvesJan 1, 2050in 23 years

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the annual global mean surface temperature anomaly has reached or exceeded +2.0°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900 average) in any calendar year before Jan 1, 2050, then the market resolves to Yes. At least two of the Source Agencies must report that we have hit the 2.0°C threshold.

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As of Sep 29, 09:22 PM UTC