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Will a ballot initiative on California secession qualify for a vote before 2030?

No81%

Before 203019%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:51 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

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Spread3%

ResolvesJan 1, 2030in 3 years

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the California Secretary of State officially certifies that at least one ballot initiative on California secession has qualified for the ballot before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

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As of Sep 29, 11:21 PM UTC