KalshiOpen

Who will be arrested in 2026?: Will John Kerry be arrested before Jan 2027?

No98%
John Kerry2%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 11Aug 23Sep 4Sep 17Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If John Kerry is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (9/25/25): The contract states that if an individual "surrenders at a police station or courthouse with their attorney" the payout criterion is satisfied. To be clear, voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement pursuant to an indictment without an arrest warrant is sufficient to resolve a market to Yes.

Other legs of this event

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As of Sep 29, 08:27 PM UTC