KalshiOpen

When will the next U.S. recession start? Q1 2026

No97%

Q1 20263%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:35 AM UTC

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24h volume$21.4

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread6%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification 4/15/25 3:00 AM ET: The determination for this market will be based on which quarter NBER highlights (independent of the month they highlight). For example, the most recent recession written as "February 2020 (2019Q4)" would resolve YES for the market called "Q4 2019" (if this was listed).

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
When will the next U.S. recession start? Q4 2024	Kalshi	100% No	$49.3	—	—	Open
When will the next U.S. recession start? Q2 2025	Kalshi	100% No	$46	—	—	Open
When will the next U.S. recession start? Q4 2025	Kalshi	99% No	$5.8	—	—	Open
When will the next U.S. recession start? Q3 2025	Kalshi	100% No	$0	—	—	Open
When will the next U.S. recession start? Q1 2025	Kalshi	100% No	$0	—	—	Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 03:13 AM UTC