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Will the America Party contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?: Will a party founded by Elon Musk contest the 2028 U.S. presidential election?

No86%
a party founded by Elon Musk14%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Spread5%
ResolvesSep 1, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If a party founded by Elon Musk contests the 2028 U.S. presidential election by having at least one candidate officially on the ballot before Sep 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A party "contests" an election if they have at least one candidate on the official ballot under the party name, participate in a formal coalition on the ballot, or have officially endorsed candidates with clear party affiliation. The party does NOT contest if they only endorse other parties' candidates, announce a boycott, fail to meet ballot access requirements, or only challenge results after voting without having participated. For multi-round elections, appearing on any round's ballot counts. For federal systems, contesting in any state/province counts for the federal election. If the election is postponed but occurs within one year, the contract remains valid. If cancelled or not held within one year, the market resolves to No.

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As of Sep 30, 02:08 AM UTC