KalshiOpen

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Andy Beshear be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?

No76%
Andy Beshear24%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Spread7%
ResolvesNov 7, 2028in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Andy Beshear is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 7, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office. The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance. Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify. The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will J.B. Pritzker be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Jon Ossoff be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi90% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Wes Moore be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Pete Buttigieg be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi85% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Kamala Harris be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Josh Shapiro be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Gretchen Whitmer be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?: Will Gavin Newsom be first this list to declare for 2028 United States presidential election before Nov 7, 2028?Kalshi77% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:26 PM UTC