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Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?

No90%
Chen Jining10%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread4%
ResolvesJan 1, 2045in 18 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Chen Jining is announced as the first new non-interim leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves when the first new non-interim leader is officially announced by the party or credible sources. The person need not have taken office before the deadline date, only be announced as the incoming leader. Interim or acting leaders do not qualify unless they are subsequently announced as the permanent leader. If multiple persons are simultaneously announced as co-leaders, the market resolves proportionally. Leadership contests that extend beyond the deadline date without an announcement resolve to No. The announcement must come from official party channels or be confirmed by multiple credible news sources.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Zhang Guoqing become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Yin Yong become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi87% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Yin Li become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Li Ganjie become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi84% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi89% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Ma Xingrui become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Wang Huning become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will He Lifeng become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Chen Min'er become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will be named as Xi Jinping's successor?: Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?Kalshi79% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC