KalshiOpen

Fed decision in Jan 2028?: Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2028 meeting? Cut >25bps

No96%
Cut >25bps4%

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ResolvesJan 26, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for "Fed maintains rate" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.

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As of Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC