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Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

No98%
Yair Lapid2%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2045in 18 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the first new person to hold Prime Minister of Israel after Issuance is Yair Lapid, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on who actually assumes the office of Prime Minister, not who is elected or nominated. Acting or interim appointments count as holding the position if they formally assume the office. The person must be different from whoever held the position at market issuance - if the same person continues in office through the expiration date, all markets resolve to No. Resolution is based on official announcements from the country's legislature or government, with The New York Times as a secondary source for confirmation.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Yoav Gallant be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi100% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi85% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi97% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi98% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Gadi Eisenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi60% Gadi EisenkotOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi99% NoOpen
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?: Will Itamar Ben-Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Kalshi98% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC