KalshiOpen

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? Before 2027

No94%
Before 20276%

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24h volume$8.3K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue is reported by any of the Source Agencies before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Clarification (12/18/25):  For this market to resolve to Yes, a Source Agency must report that at least one million Americans have received payments of at least $1,000 directly attributable to tariff revenue. A Source Agency writing that someone (e.g., the President) claimed the payments are from tariff revenue does not satisfy this requirement. The Source Agency must report it as fact, not as a claim made by another party. For example, "Millions of Americans received payments this week, which were funded by tariff revenue" would qualify, whereas "Trump said the payments received yesterday are funded by tariff revenue" would not qualify.

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 02:50 AM UTC