KalshiOpen

When will marijuana be rescheduled? Before Jan 20, 2029

Before Jan 20, 202981%
No19%

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24h volume$49.2
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread4%
ResolvesJan 20, 2029in 2 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If marijuana is rescheduled from Schedule I to a lower drug schedule under the Controlled Substances Act before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. If the DEA were to reschedule only certain cannabis derivatives or specific cannabinoids (e.g., move THC or a particular cannabis-derived pharmaceutical to a different schedule) without reclassifying marijuana/cannabis as a whole, that would not qualify as rescheduling marijuana for this contract. Ending the schedule altogether would resolve the market to Yes. Clarification (12/12/25): The Payout Criterion requires that marijuana is legally removed from Schedule I. The mere announcement or publication of a Final Rule in the Federal Register does not satisfy the Payout Criterion if the rule has not taken legal effect. The market resolves based on the actual status of the Schedules under the Controlled Substances Act.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
When will marijuana be rescheduled? Before 2027Kalshi94% NoOpen
When will marijuana be rescheduled? Before 2028Kalshi72% Before 2028Open

Venue activity

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As of Sep 30, 11:13 AM UTC