KalshiOpen

Who will release a new song this year?: Will Post Malone release a new song 2026?

Post Malone92%
No8%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread37%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Post Malone releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on public availability on Spotify under the artist's official discography. For markets specifying "new song" or "new music," the release must be an original composition first released during the time period. Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of existing tracks, remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, or reproductions of songs already on Spotify do not qualify as "new." Songs released in a new language count as new releases. Cosmetic changes like title edits, artwork updates, or re-uploads of the same audio do not constitute new releases. If a release is withdrawn after appearing on Spotify, it still qualifies if verifiably public at any point during the time period. The effective release time is the first verified moment of public availability, regardless of displayed metadata dates. Region-limited or staggered releases qualify once publicly available in any official Spotify market. If the artist is deceased, posthumous releases attributed to them as primary or featured performer still qualify.

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Venue activity

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As of Sep 29, 09:31 PM UTC