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Will a Millennium Prize be awarded for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028? Before 2028

No92%
Before 20288%

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24h volume$0
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Spread1%
ResolvesJan 1, 2035in 8 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the Clay Mathematics Institute officially announces the award of a Millennium Prize for any unsolved Millennium Prize Problem before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The Clay Mathematics Institute must officially announce that a Millennium Prize has been awarded for the complete solution of the specified problem. The solution must be a positive proof as originally stated, not a counterexample or disproof (unless the market specifically includes counterexamples). Announcements of submitted solutions, peer-reviewed publications without CMI verification, or partial solutions do not qualify. If a mathematician solves a problem but declines the monetary prize, the market still resolves to Yes if CMI officially announces the prize award. The Poincaré Conjecture has already been solved by Grigori Perelman.

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As of Sep 29, 10:59 PM UTC