KalshiOpen

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?: Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Hottest70%

No30%

Price checked at Sep 29, 06:33 PM UTC

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24h volume$7.5

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will close at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 10:00 AM following the release of the data for 2026, or 10:00 AM ET April 01, 2027

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders—

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Open interest—

Comments0

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As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC