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Lai Ching-te departure announced?: Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2028-01-01T15:00:00.000Z? Before January 1, 2028

No73%
Before January 1, 202827%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread9%
ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Lai Ching-te leaves office before January 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An announcement that Lai Ching-te will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion. If Lai Ching-te leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death). If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.

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As of Sep 29, 08:35 PM UTC