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Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026? Before 2027

No96%
Before 20274%

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24h volume$108.6
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this Contract, the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi when the government of the United States takes official action acknowledging Reza Pahlavi specifically as the rightful or legitimate leader of Iran. Recognition must be explicit regarding Reza Pahlavi as an individual, not merely recognition of Iran as a state or recognition of whatever government happens to be in power.

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As of Sep 29, 09:27 PM UTC