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Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?: Will Trump issue any executive action on imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) during in 2026?

No75%
Critical minerals25%

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24h volume$48
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread7%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on critical minerals, where the executive action must explicitly reference critical minerals in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on the issuance of an executive action, independent of the effective date or whether the tariffs are subsequently implemented. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.

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As of Sep 29, 10:18 PM UTC