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Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?: Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France before Jan 1, 2027? Yes

No86%
Yes14%

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24h volume$11.9
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread9%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Elon Musk has been formally charged with any crime in Spain or France after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges. Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. For groups of individuals, charges against any member of the specified group trigger the criterion.

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As of Sep 29, 11:23 PM UTC