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Will any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?: Will any federal or state court rule finds that fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states? Before 2027

No87%
Before 202713%

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24h volume$0
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Spread6%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Aug 8Aug 21Sep 3Sep 16Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any federal or state court finds that widespread fraud, fraudulent conduct, or illegal manipulation of ballots or vote counts occurred in connection with the 2020 U.S. presidential election in one or more states before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For clarity, the following do not satisfy this judgment criterion: findings of procedural irregularities, administrative errors, statutory violations related to election administration procedures (e.g., ballot curing deadlines, signature matching standards, observer access), or violations of election law that do not involve intentional fraud or deliberate manipulation of votes. Individual criminal prosecutions or guilty pleas for isolated acts of voter fraud (e.g., a single individual casting an illegal ballot) do not satisfy this criterion, even if the conduct occurred in connection with the 2020 election.

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As of Sep 29, 10:13 PM UTC