KalshiOpen

When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2027?

No68%
Before Apr 1, 202732%

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24h volume$1.9K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2031in 4 years

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. To qualify, the announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), or that it has achieved, attained, reached, or developed “AGI.” Statements that describe “AGI-like,” “AGI-level,” “near-AGI,” or “toward AGI” systems without explicitly stating that the company has achieved/attained/reached/developed AGI do not qualify. For purposes of this market, a “company” includes any publicly traded company or any privately held company whose existence and corporate identity is verifiable and whose financing/valuation or corporate profile is covered by at least two of the listed major business news sources.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2026?Kalshi99% NoOpen
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2027?Kalshi52% Before Oct 1, 2027Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2027?Kalshi83% NoOpen
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2031?Kalshi82% Before Jan 1, 2031Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2028?Kalshi79% Before Jul 1, 2028Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Apr 1, 2028?Kalshi76% Before Apr 1, 2028Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Oct 1, 2028?Kalshi81% Before Oct 1, 2028Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?Kalshi79% Before Jan 1, 2030Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2029?Kalshi76% Before Jan 1, 2029Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2028?Kalshi61% Before Jan 1, 2028Open
When will any company achieve AGI?: Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jul 1, 2027?Kalshi60% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 09:25 PM UTC