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UK Renewables Obligation scheme changes: Will the United Kingdom agree to or announce the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028? ROC recycle removal

No59%
ROC recycle removal41%

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Spread7%
ResolvesJan 8, 2028next year

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces the removal or replacement of the Renewables Obligation Certificate buy-out fund redistribution mechanism before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments

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As of Sep 29, 09:25 PM UTC