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Who will hold more governorships after the midterms?: Will the difference between the number of Republican governors and the number of Democratic governors be between -50 and -1 governors after the 2026 midterms? Democratic Party

Democratic Party68%
No32%

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24h volume$257.5
7d volume—
30d volume—
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Spread1%
ResolvesApr 1, 2027in 6 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Democrats hold more governorships than Republicans after the 2026 midterm elections, the market resolves to Yes. For the purposes of this Contract, the total number of governorships held by a party is calculated by counting (i) uncontested governorships (those without a scheduled election in 2026) plus (ii) contested governorships won by that party's candidate as determined under the resolution criteria of the ELECTION contract, including the accelerated provision.

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As of Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC