Brazil presidential election: first round winner?: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva74%
No26%

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24h volume$5.9K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 4, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi states the affirmative condition without specifying a source, while Polymarket uses valid-vote rankings, tie-breaking rules, credible reporting/TSE results, and a fallback deadline. These are resolution-rule differences only, not differences in the event being measured.
  • Kalshithis market

    Brazil presidential election: first round winner?: Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva wins the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    read Sep 29, 07:15 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC