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Will core CPI fall below 2.2% in 2026?: Will year-over-year Core CPI inflation for 2026 fall below 2.2%? Yes

No95%

Yes5%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:13 AM UTC

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24h volume$56.6

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread4%

ResolvesDec 17, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that year-over-year Core CPI inflation is below 2.2% in any remaining 2026 monthly CPI release after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. This market covers only CPI releases scheduled to occur in calendar year 2026 and does not include the CPI release scheduled for January 2027, even though that release may report December 2026 data. The last covered CPI release is the November 2026 CPI release, scheduled for Thursday, December 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.

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As of Sep 30, 02:25 AM UTC