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Canadian trips to the U.S. down 20% in 2026?: Will the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 be above 20%? Decline greater than 20%

No90%

Decline greater than 20%10%

Price checked at Sep 29, 06:51 PM UTC

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24h volume$10.1

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread3%

ResolvesMar 2, 2027in 5 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Statistics Canada reports that the decline in Canadian-resident return trips from the United States for 2026 is greater than 20% compared with 2025 in its "Travel between Canada and other countries, December 2026" release, then the market resolves to Yes. The relevant figure is the full-year 2026 year-over-year percentage change for “Canadian-resident return trips from the United States,” as stated in Statistics Canada’s release text or related tables. If Statistics Canada does not publish a full-year percentage-change figure for 2026, the market will resolve using the percentage change calculated from Statistics Canada’s annual table for the same series.

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As of Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC