Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run?: Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

No81%
Before Jan 1, 202719%

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Ron DeSantis has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi requires a public announcement by the person or campaign and excludes mere filing/exploratory activity; Polymarket also uses a public announcement standard and may rely on credible reporting. Their settlement sources differ, but the question and cutoff are materially the same.
  • Kalshithis market

    Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run?: Will Ron DeSantis announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2027?

    If Ron DeSantis has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

    read Oct 23, 05:41 AM UTC

  • Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    28 holders · 21 comments · read Oct 9, 07:16 PM UTC

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As of Oct 25, 02:38 AM UTC