Will the Sahm Rule trigger in 2026?: Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator trigger in 2026? Yes
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator for any monthly observation from Issuance through December 2026 is At least 0.50ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the first published value for the applicable monthly observation in FRED series SAHMREALTIME. Revisions to previously published values will not be considered. The market does not depend on whether the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession. A value exactly equal to 0.50 qualifies.
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 08:27 PM UTC