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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Raphael Warnock vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?

No91%
Raphael Warnock9%

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 12Sep 18Sep 24Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Raphael Warnock votes for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE) in the Senate before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The vote must be the first final vote on the bill, not a motion to proceed or motion to invoke cloture, unless otherwise specified. This must be a vote in the relevant full chamber, not a Committee vote, though not every member of the chamber needs to have participated in the vote. Once the vote has been closed and the correct result of the vote has been announced, a request by the member to add, remove, or alter a vote shall not be considered for purposes of resolving this market, regardless of any change to the official vote tally reported by the website Congress.gov or any other Congressional source.

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Mike Lee vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Rand Paul vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi90% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Ruben Gallego vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi96% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Mark Warner vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi95% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Lisa Blunt Rochester vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Kirsten Gillibrand vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi91% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Jerry Moran vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi92% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Josh Hawley vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi92% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Catherine Cortez Masto vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Angela Alsobrooks vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi94% NoOpen
Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?: Will Andy Kim vote for a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?Kalshi94% NoOpen

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As of Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC