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Will the US ban crude oil exports?: Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect before Jan 1, 2027? Before 2027

No91%
Before 20279%

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24h volume$0
7d volume—
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Spread2%
ResolvesJan 8, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 26Oct 2Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the United States has imposed a ban on exports of crude oil that has gone into effect after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.

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As of Oct 2, 02:39 PM UTC