Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?: Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform Gold?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If S&P 500 Total Return Index performs above Gold for the period of 2026 by 0.001% then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. Gold?: Will Gold outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index? | Kalshi | 71% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 07:23 PM UTC