KalshiOpen

Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?: Will BTC outperform S&P 500 Total Return Index?

No86%

BTC14%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:57 PM UTC

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24h volume$0

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread10%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If BTC performs above S&P 500 Total Return Index for the week of 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Total Return Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 TR is +10.000%.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Annual Return: S&P 500 Total Return Vs. BTC?: Will S&P 500 Total Return Index outperform BTC?	Kalshi	92% S&P 500 Total Return Index	$0.1	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 10:27 PM UTC