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Alberta Separation Process Referendum passes?: Will the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada pass? Yes

No92%
Yes8%

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24h volume$1.5K
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread1%
ResolvesOct 19, 2026in 19 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 7Sep 13Sep 19Sep 24Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the option in Alberta’s 2026 referendum asking whether the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether Alberta should separate from Canada passes, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

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As of Sep 30, 09:54 PM UTC