Annual Return: S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index: Will the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index outperform the S&P 500 Index?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If S&P 500 Equal Weight Index performs above S&P 500 Index during 2026 by 0.001% rounded to the nearest 3rd then the market resolves to Yes. Percent return is calculated from the official open price of each asset on January 2, 2026 (the first published trading day of the calendar year) and the official closing price on December 31, 2026. For example, if the S&P 500 Index opens at $5,800 on January 2, 2026 and at $6,380 on December 31, 2026, it will be concluded that the annual percentage return of the S&P 500 is +10.000%.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annual Return: S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 Equal Weight Index: Will the S&P 500 Index outperform the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index? | Kalshi | 62% No | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 29, 08:33 PM UTC